2020 Vision

The Reality Industry has spent the past six years talking about ‘next year’. Every year. We’ve been proposing potential and identifying opportunities for an audience keen to invest, dedicate time, effort and resources, without offering much in return. So, is 2020 the big year for consumer VR and AR?

I’m a man of few words. You may disagree if you’ve read some of my blog posts or seen any of my longer event keynotes – but I believe in actions, they speak far louder than words.

The thing about immersive experiences is that to really appreciate them, you need to be immersed. Sounds simple but it’s not when we share so much digitally. Using video to tell stories about the benefits of VR therapy or AR for industrial solutions is a powerful tool in a marketers armoury – and they’re far more effective than simply creating the technology and hoping your audience will view it or adopt it.

Until now, the Reality (XR) Industry has been hobbled by the hardware – from low-end phone-based headsets to expensive desktop PCs with their wired units. This, in a wireless world where we’re all trying to escape from desktop tethers whilst demanding higher and higher resolution and ergonomic comfort. These expectations aren’t unreasonable because we’re used to technology advancing at a breakneck pace.

Thankfully, Oculus launches its Quest VR headset next week for £399, a 6 DoF (Degrees of Freedom) device with hand controllers, unencumbered by phones, PCs or wires and empowering the user to move freely within the real world to navigate the virtual, unlike the cheaper Oculus GO that has you rooted to the spot.

You’ll be told there are better headsets on the market, even by Oculus. Some are cheaper, others with faster processors and higher resolution but none stand a better chance of changing hearts and minds and reaching the largest audience than the GO – if the story is told in the right way: A  tale of magic and wonder and learning and discovery wrapped up in out-of-this-world experiences. Not Virtual Facebook. I’ve spent more time in VR than most and Facebook is the last thing I want to experience in any reality.

So what about consumer Augmented Reality? I’m not going to list all the headsets/glasses but Hololens and Magic Leap look stupid and are way beyond consumer pricing, Vuzix Blade looks cool but is still $1,000 and ODG and Meta are no more. Those price points are still too high for anyone other than early adopters, so use your phone (because it has always been AR-ready) for social cosplay, apps for way finding and beyond, then throw in a Lenovo Jedi Challenges Lightsaber, because it’s an awesome demonstration of consumer AR capability with haptic feedback and multiplayer mode.

Alternatively, you could combine VR and AR as I did in my XR Immersion Suit on the world’s fastest city zip wire in London for a Vice documentary or during my Digital Freedom Festival keynote ‘Blurred Line Between Man and Machine’

Both utilise VR headsets for maximum Field of Vision (FoV) using their built-in cameras to offer an augmented view of the real world around us. These actions do indeed speak louder than words as the research delivers the message that we’re not there yet – the world needs stunning (and life-changing) content to add value, depth and relevance if we’re going to engage and retain a consumer audience for both VR and AR. You can’t hope to tick some of the boxes and still be successful – you need them all. Effective video storytelling not only raises awareness of XR content, it tells your audience where it is, why it exists and how it is relevant to them.

However, stunning VR or AR content alone simply isn’t enough if it doesn’t encourage an audience to return to it or go out into the real world and act upon it. Don’t be afraid to ask the question “why?” at ANY stage – or your audience will instead.

Is 2020 finally the ‘year of XR’ for consumers?

Yes.

Why?

The Inspiration Game

No one wants to own anything, or drive anything, or change anything. The great Innovators have stopped innovating. The great storytellers aren’t making as much noise as the bad ones. And everyone is happy to follow the crowd – or so the crowd has been told…

In January 2019, Apple reported their first decline in revenues and profits in over a decade. They blamed weak iPhone sales and a downturn in China. True, the Chinese market has become a tougher nut to crack, but the underlying reason for the downturn is we’ve stopped wanting AND needing some of their products.

I used to queue outside Apple Stores to get my hands on new model iPhones. I even waited in line for over twelve hours outside the New York 5th Avenue glass cube in 2010 to be the first to buy an iPad. But that was then, I now struggle to justify the cold nose, sore feet and dented bank balance.

Don’t get me wrong, I have no interest in owning a PC or using Android as my primary mobile OS – because I still love Apple. My long line of MacBooks have never let me down and have been worth every penny and my iMacs have always been there when I needed them, delivering day in, day out for years. My iPhones have worked brilliantly inside and out, looked beautiful and felt like the quality products they are.

So why are Apple’s profits down? Because their flagship physical products are too good and too straight. Too good might seem a great selling point – but it’s clearly becoming an issue. My iPhone 7 Plus is into its third year of ownership and I haven’t upgraded my iPad mini for seven! They both work perfectly and I simply can’t justify upwards of £1,000 for the iPhone I’d want (or need) or an iPad Pro upgrade.

So let’s turn to ‘too straight’. Apple used to excite me. I’d eagerly await each live-streamed keynote with a sense of anticipation akin to the Oscars – living in hope for Steve’s ‘one more thing’. And he’d always deliver. Deliver something we didn’t need or know we wanted, but we just had to have it because it was the future. Our future.

The world we know and love has been built on elation, not iteration – but that’s what Apple now delivers. It makes $Billions from smoothly blending one model into the next. One service and software update into another. The world needs a defibrillator moment where we kickstart the kickstarts and make our hearts beat that little bit faster as we rediscover the joy of the unexpected.

Apple didn’t become the most valuable company on the planet by making poor business decisions so it’s not about dropping the things that work and veering off at a tangent. Tech rivals all too often over-promise and under-deliver, or feel they need to fill a market gap only to find no one wants what they have to offer. But the key to consumer engagement is telling a great story and making it relevant to a brand’s audience.

I’m not going to apologise for disagreeing with the statement “make things people want, don’t make people want things”. Screw that, most people don’t know what they want until they see it. A brand’s role is to tell them why it exists, how it can improve their lives and steer them to ownership, membership or sponsorship via the point of least resistance.

Advertising and marketing opportunities still bring us stories for the products we consume, but these stories need to be told by the people with the passion behind the brands. How they’re made is one thing, but the reasons why they exist are far more powerful.

I spoke with Roborace CEO, Lucas di Grassi in Berlin in December and he told me about the race series startup’s change of direction away from the Daniel Simon-designed Robocar as the audience didn’t understand its capabilities and true Artificial Intelligence. The focus has instead been turned to their DevBot car, with a combination of AI and driver interaction.

The inability of the audience to grasp Robocar’s relevance is not a failing of the motorsport fans – but a missed opportunity to tell a story of excitement, interaction and inspirational possibilities for the future, rather than one of the technology beneath the surface. Don’t give up Lucas, we need Robocar in our near future, weaponised and ready to roll.

It’s more important than ever to get this story right when introducing the next generation of self-driving vehicles. Industry experts speak of the irrelevance of dealerships and a pure digital future but they’re missing the point. Entirely.

Motorists won’t simply hop from their current vehicles into an autonomous network. They don’t trust the technology, it’s as simple as that. The way to convince is not through a VR simulation. Not an online video. It’s by physical experience, sat in the very car they will be instilling ALL their trust. This won’t be about telling an audience how safe a range of robot vehicles is – it’s through the vehicle occupant not being involved in an accident.

The next level of trust will be via word of mouth and the testimonials of ‘real people’ – not actors or brand ambassadors. Selling the autonomous future through trust not tricks.

But there’s still a world of inspiration for us all to discover. The iterators may be shouting louder, but sift through the white noise and you’ll find thought leaders not simply leading by telling great stories – they’re also leading by example.

Richard Browning of Gravity (or ‘Rocket Man’ as he’s more commonly known) is pushing the boundaries of personal mobility by offering us a superhuman vision of the future. He has built a successful business from his own personal invention, innovation and ability to sell a dream. One jetpack is evolving into a scaleable race series on the road (or lack thereof) to tomorrow.

Claire Lomas, an athlete paralysed in 2007 in an equestrian accident epitomises courage and encouragement. She has never faltered in her battle against her physical condition, unwilling to accept the boundaries seemingly imposed upon her. Claire has worn a robotic exoskeleton to complete marathons and her determination to excel has resulted in a new skill – motorcycle racing!

Both Richard and Claire aren’t playing the Inspiration Game – they’re living it. Roborace will also inspire and innovate in equal measures when their story is told in the right way to the right audience, and it will be epic.

Apple has stopped playing the game. It’s not too late for the company I still love to let the iteration take care of itself and get back to thrilling us with one more thing.

And if they’re struggling to find inspiration themselves – or any of us for that matter – the words from Apple’s own 1997 TV ad celebrate the existence of The Crazy Ones. The very people I love and will always aspire to be.

“Here's to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels. The troublemakers.

The round pegs in the square holes. The ones who see things differently.

They're not fond of rules. And they have no respect for the status quo.

You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them. About the only thing you can't do is ignore them.

Because they change things.

They push the human race forward.

And while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius.

Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones who do.”

Digical: Designing Physical Magic in a Digital World

“The future is digital!” Well, yes the future does indeed contain an increasingly digitised conversation, with a growing dependency on connectivity, platforms and networks. But to neglect the physical and merely focus on digital design and production misses out one vital ingredient – the human being.

I’ve thrown myself into numerous debates on the future of digital disruption, such as “VR is the future of film, TV and entertainment” – no, it’s ‘a’ future (no technological option has yet made the printed book obsolete) – they all continue to co-exist.

Speaking of books, we were convinced interactive multimedia digital experiences were the ‘future of the book’. They weren’t, as pushing certain content too far in one direction created something entirely different – a game for those not wishing to play, or an interactive movie for those simply planning to sit back and watch.

As part of my ongoing involvement in shaping the future of mobility, another heated debate rages over the subject of autonomous vehicles – “how do these things drive themselves?” “Is the technology safe?” “Will we be able to play Pokemon Go on the windscreen?” It’s my mission to inject the missing physical experience into this line of questioning.

Brands need to move consumers’ automotive expectations away from “how does it work?” to “how does it feel?” Lidar will speak to AI and AI will communicate with other vehicles, road networks and entire cities, but how will it feel to sit in a vehicle where control has been replaced by a far more important thing – choice.

I’ve had top-level conversations with global auto manufacturers about the importance of sleep, relaxation and sex in a self-driving vehicle and I’ve tested VR content, enhanced by the dynamic physical actions of a moving car. The choice of surface materials and storage solutions will become increasingly important as we’re given more time to physically interact with the environment around us and we’ll become less accepting of something that merely transports us from A to B.

Every action and instruction can be transmitted through gesture or voice, but in vehicles built for dual-driving (switchable between self and human-input) we’ll still appreciate tactile input systems such as rotary dials and switches even if some simply trade on brand history, but add strength and conviction in the process.

Part of the reason I spent 48 hours in Virtual Reality last year was to counter the argument that all VR time was wasted on a sofa watching movies or playing games. We planned as much physical activity as possible (including the wing-walk, go-kart racing, boxing and my real-world tattoo) and successfully combined physical kit with digital platforms and content.

However, Teslasuit have brought this physical element even closer to the virtual world with their full-body haptic clothing, sending electrical stimuli to muscle groups and delivering physical presence direct to digital experiences. I have been fortunate to not only test the suit with an eye to potential real-world application, adding value rather than IoT clutter, but also combine this with further wearable technology.

As much as I hate acronyms (and MR in particular), my Immersion Suit is all about the XR – (e)Xtended Reality. By taking a base layer supplied by the Teslasuit and adding bionic shoes, exoskeleton gloves, AR and VR helmets and a smattering of fireballs, I’m successfully combining the real with the hyper-real and providing a platform for digital content plus the opportunity to talk about what works, what doesn’t and what the future holds for us all.

And that future doesn’t need to look ridiculous. OK, I’m not saying we’ll all be running around in Immersion Suits in ten years (or twenty), but FashTech is a real thing, as is good product design so it’s important the view we’re projecting of the future is one we don’t just think is acceptable, but actually mirrors developments in materials and manufacturing in the fashion industry.

Google failed to predict the negative brand association of Robert Scoble stood naked in a shower, wearing Glass. It wasn’t a consumer product, but it soon hit the consumer press – as did Scoble a few years later for ALL the wrong reasons.

Is Magic Leap displaying a similar naïveté (or arrogance) as images emerge of tech geeks clad in Magic Leap One headsets swamping consumer press and social channels? The technology is undoubtedly incredible (as was Glass) but no one wants to think they’ll look stupid in the future – and that’s exactly how Magic Leap pioneers are being portrayed right now.

Product design is about more than ergonomic comfort and shoehorning the right amount of tech into an acceptable space. It’s also about the look, the feel and the image. Just pick up any Apple product, hold it, balance it in your hand then ask yourself how it makes YOU feel.

Which brings us to Disney. And The Void.

“AR, not VR is the way of the future for Disney Parks.

What we create is an experience that is real.”

Bob Iger

And then Disney partnered with The Void, Lucasfilm and ILM to produce ‘Secrets of The Empire’ – the best Immersive VR experience to date. My previous benchmark was ‘Ghostbusters: Dimension’, another Void experience with Sony Pictures at Madame Tussauds in New York.

I’m fortunate to have been on Utah-based The Void’s journey since their early days so appreciate how far they’ve come. Their bespoke helmet design, haptic vest and weaponry fit perfectly with these immersive cinema experiences when adding blasts of air, heat, vibration and physical environments. This is transformative digital technology, genuinely transforming by offering a physical experience – not a replacement for it.

Spending a lot of time in VR (I’ve probably racked up more hours than most) it’s clear the technology is incredible, with experiences beyond our wildest dreams. But those dreams are even more magical when we share them with others in the physical world around us. Disney has perfected the art so it’s easy to see why Bob Iger views Augmented Reality as a more suitable experience for his parks than VR.

But we’ll have to wait for the AR headsets to improve before that becomes the shared experience we’re used to in a theme park environment. Poor Field of Vision (FoV), battery life and hygiene are holding back wider adoption – which leaves us with the real world.

Disney stands alone like no other collection of brands, properties, platforms and products, with a heritage to die for. But turning the spotlight on the new(ish) kids on the block, the magical world of Harry Potter is winning when it comes to contemporary physical brand extension. A ride on the Hogwarts Express or browsing every store in Diagon Alley at Universal Studios, or getting up close and personal with the costumes, props and sets at the Warner Bros Studio Tour – these are delivered to an extraordinary standard. Next steps could easily combine an AR overlay or a complete VR experience – but these physical environments already feel magical and out of this world so they must add genuine value.

The more I consume digital, the more I appreciate physical and the higher expectations I have of each.

Almost every industry is guilty of developing digital content without fully considering physical interaction. But the future isn’t one or the other.

This isn’t about choosing a physical OR digital solution – it’s about effectively combining the two, with a love and appreciation of each. Let’s get Digical.

Uploading The Future…

The doors of the elevator open and instead of facing inwards towards the security of a welcoming carpeted corridor, they reveal a 30 storey drop on the outside of a gleaming glass structure at the heart of a bustling city. The wind hits you, every hair stands on end and you struggle with a moment of panic, staring into the unknown. Then adrenaline kicks in, your mind races and you take a step forward…

I’ve faced exactly this scenario in virtual reality, although I like to bungee jump and abseil so I didn’t cling to the back of the elevator. However, I’m not describing a utopian or dystopian digital future. Individuals and businesses face this kind of dilemma every day but most choose to stay where they are, or even step backwards rather than commit to change and champion progress.

There’s nothing wrong with appreciating what you have or taking inspiration from what you had, but to truly innovate you need to push boundaries and look to the future.

And that’s what I’ve been doing for 34 years.

Boundary-pushing isn’t always welcomed, but my brand of change has never failed to deliver results. From my earliest business interests (at the age of 13), starting a magazine and software label, through a career as a graphic designer, to the combination of design, technology and innovation over the last decade.

I’ve told heads of global automotive brands to integrate reclining seats for sex in autonomous vehicles. I’ve given VR advice on Capitol Hill at the heart of US Government. I have demonstrated emerging technology to NATO, told Apple where to focus on Wearable Tech, Publishing and AR and continue to test products, services and theories to destruction – or survival.

In 2009, I successfully predicted the existence of Apple’s iPad and helped deliver the first app on day one to expand opportunities for the Publishing industry. I designed, produced and wrote one of Apple’s first interactive iBooks (Design top 20 for 6+ years). I followed this with deeper focus on Wearable Technology, resulting in an automative app title alongside the launch of the Apple Watch.

But what happens when the technology we’re faced with doesn’t go far enough, or the messages from or about an industry just aren’t going anywhere? You push and you deliver your own results. Nowhere is that better illustrated than in my 48 hours in Virtual Reality where I tested full body interaction driving a go-kart and strapped to the top wing of a bi-plane, fell asleep and woke up in VR to test mental awareness and had a tattoo whilst wearing a headset to prove the benefits of virtual distraction to mitigate pain.

I didn’t set out to write an ‘Isn’t Dean Innovative’ list, but I’ve found myself personally pushing these boundaries for decades rather than simply quoting other people’s experiences – or accepting “no” for an answer. As I said in my TEDx Athens talk...

“I’d rather apologise for something awesome, than ask permission for something lame”

…which is why I’m excited to announce that I am now taking those 34 years of valuable experience to the rest of the world as a Design, Technology and Innovation Consultant. I’ll be continuing to develop my XR Immersion Suit to push boundaries in ALL the realities, bring these to life on global corporate and public stages and help others to push their own boundaries.

I also plan to write a book about the future of Automotive and Mobility – but I can’t offer you everything in one article.

So let’s step back into that elevator again. Don’t worry, I won’t make you jump off the building this time, but forget about Dave in accounts, or that Board meeting on floor 27, or the canteen at your designated lunch hour. Press a number you’ve never pressed before and begin a voyage of discovery. It might only be the mail room, but you could find yourself on the Holodeck or in a chamber full of cryogenically frozen world leaders.

But you won’t know if you don’t try. It’s why I'm not afraid to tell it like it is, how it’s going to be, and how to design the future.

I am, and always will be, a rebel with a cause.